Elon Musk, the CEO of SpaceX and Tesla Motors, has an interesting theory about human civilization. An article in Tech Insider quotes the businessman and investor as offering the possibility that the human race exists in the video game of an advanced civilization. Of course, humans do not know that they are part of a computer simulation. Humans believe everything is real, or at least, many humans but not Musk who takes the anti-reality position. Apparently Musk has spent so much time discussing this idea that he has vowed to never discuss it in a hot tub. This is an agreement he made with his brother. While the agreement is humorous, it points out how many people want to discuss this theory with Musk. After all, it is a great idea to debate, since there is no current way to know which side is correct. Both sides can debate with passion, with no consequences or losers.
This is obviously just a theory advanced by Musk. There is no proof, of course, but Musk advances the theory as one possible explanation for the existence of humans. He may well believe it to be true, but he cannot say it is true without proof. To understand Musk’s line of reasoning, you have to follow along with his thought process, remembering that he has been extraordinary successful in his businesses, and is now a billionaire several times over. That does not mean he knows more than anyone else, but he does deal with cutting edge technology and ideas, and this is certainly in line with his other thoughts and activities, which can best be described as outside the box.
Musk states that there is only a one-in-billions chance that we are in what he calls “base reality.” He goes further to state that if we are not in a simulation, then we should be very concerned about the future of the human race.
Musk presents a very detailed line of reasoning to explain his thinking. He starts with the history of video games which go back only about 40 years to Pong. It was a very simple game, as he puts it, two rectangles and a dot comprised the entire game. Now come forward 40 years, and the advances are amazing. The games are photorealistic, contain 3D simulation, and they allow millions of people to play at the same time. If games can move that quickly in a short period of time, imagine what we will have in the future, or as Musk says, 10,000 years, which he considers a short period of time as far as the world is concerned. If the current rate of development continues, it will take far less time than that to reach the point where a game and reality merge. When that occurs, then there will be people in video games.
As Musk sees it, when games and reality merge, there will be no way to tell the difference. If there are billions of computers and boxes playing these games, then that is the basis for his one-in-billions figure. To Musk, how can you argue with that reasoning? Makes perfect sense, even if it cannot be proved.
Elon Musk is very concerned for the future of humans if we are not in a simulation. You get the sense that he wants human to be in that simulation. The future is either games that match reality, with no one able to tell the difference, or the failure of civilization to advance. If humans fail to advance then games and reality will not merge. That failure would be due to some large and powerful calamity that strikes humanity, preventing it from continuing to advance technologically.